Rookie Forecasts

Its been a while since my last post--over a year to be exact!  Anyways, I haven't lost interest in the NBA--I've just been busy with a lot of other things in my life.  That said, I'm back to providing some scouting analysis. 

Now that the draft has come and gone, I'm going to give you my predictions on which rookies will have long, productive NBA careers, and which rookies will be busts.

Derrick Rose - We've all read a lot about Derrick Rose.  The comparisons to Jason Kidd are probably the most accurate in terms of game style.  However, I think Derrick Rose is going to take a couple of years to fully develop (as opposed to someone like Deron Williams who was an instant success as a rookie).  At the NBA level, everyone point guard has a relatively comparable skill-set.   The separation from an all-star vs a benchwarmer boils down to a few essential attributes, however.   Among these attributes are (i) explosive quickness (ii) a feel for the game, and (iii) leadership.  Rose clearly has an abundance of quickness.  However, his feel for the game at this point is still developing.  Finally, I don't know if Rose has the personality to be a great leader.

Michael Beasley - I'll keep this short.  Beasely will be a 23 and 8 per night guy who will never win a championship.  The reason--he is a scorer and not much else.  

Russell Westbrook - the more I see this guy, the more impressed I am.  He may end up being a better player than Rose in 3 years.