Is Greg Oden the greatest center prospect to ever come out of college? Judging by the player comparisons given by other NBA draft sites, Oden seems like a sure-fire hall of famer. Between Draftexpress.com, NBADraft.net, Espn.com, , Oden has been compared to a young Patrick Ewing, Shaquille O’Neal and even David Robinson. Franky, some of these comparisons make me scratch my head. For example, David Robinson was a 7 footer who had the skills of a small forward. The Shaq comparisons are mind boggling as well because their body types are very different. As far as the Patrick Ewing comparison goes, they’re not bad. I’ve only seen highlights of Ewing during his Georgetown days, but from what I understand, Ewing was a much more physical player than he was in the 1990’s.
I’d like to offer another comparison-- a young Dikembe Mutumbo. Why is no one talking about Oden being the next Mutumbo? For the first ten years of his career, Mutumbo averaged double digits in points and rebounds. He also averaged over 3 blocks per game during those first ten years. Beyond the stats, Mutumbo and Oden’s skills are strikingly similar. Both of them have excellent timing when blocking shots. Both players could disrupt an opponents offense simply by being on the floor and being a threat to block shots. Both players have a nifty jump hook. And both players were above average free throw shooters. (Mutumbo has averaged 68.4% from their cherry stripe for his career). On the downside, neither player has much offensive polish and both of them seem very deliberate in their movements when making offensive moves.
That said, there are some things that Oden does better and some things that Mutumbo does better. On one hand, Oden is quicker up and down the floor and seems to be more fluid in his motions. As a result, he seems to have more athletic potential to develop a more complete offensive game. On the other hand, I wonder if Oden will be as an effective of a rebounder as Mutumbo was in the NBA career. While Oden’s rebounding numbers are nothing to be ashamed of, Oden has had his share of 5 or 6 rebound games this year. In college, Oden should be able to average double digit rebounds in his sleep simply by relying on his height and length advantage. If he wants to translate similar rebounding production in the pros, however, Oden will have to improve in reacting to the ball and not positioning himself so close to the rim when trying to rebound long range jump shots.
Oden is certainly deserving of being the first pick in the 2007 NBA draft should he choose to turn pro this year. His presence in the paint alone allows his teammates to play perimeter defense more aggressively, thereby instantly making any team he plays on that much better defensively. However, he is still somewhat raw on offense and his lack of a natural feel scoring the ball may limit his ability in the NBA to dominate on the offensive end. Hence, a younger Dikembe Mutumbo seems like most accurate projection of Greg Oden’s future value in the NBA. If you can accept that comparison, would you still feel like Oden deserves the hype he has received thus far?
Sunday, March 25, 2007
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Who's the Next Elton Brand? A look at Al Thornton, DJ White, and Glen Davis
Not so long ago, shorter power forward prospects who dominated in college game were often hyped up as "the next Charles Barkley". Guys from the '90s like Byron Houston, Gary Trent, and Robert "Tractor" Traylor come to mind. While these guys were studs in college, they didn't live up to the hype in the NBA. It wasn't until 1999 that one of these short power forwards actually panned out and became a franchise player. His name--Elton Brand.
So today, whenever the media hypes up a short college power forward, they justify the hype by labeling him as the "next Elton Brand." Guys like Ike Diogu, Marcus Fizer, and Sean May were touted as such. Fizer isn't in the league anymore. Diogu and May are still early in the careers, but so far they haven't shown the ability to consistently dominate the low post as they did in college. None of those guys will replicate the success acheived by Elton Brand because they lacked the combintation of skill sets that Brand brings to the table--namely explosive quickness (both off the ground and laterally), great body control, freakishly long arms, decisive moves around the basket, and a great midrange jumper, among other things.
This year there are a few more undersized power forwards who have first round, if not lottery, potential. None of this year's candidates for "next Elton Brand" are getting much hype. Do they deserve more? Let's take a look at their abilities and see (1) how they compare to Elton Brand, and (2) how their game will translate in the NBA.
Al Thornton: Listed at 6'8 and 220lbs, Thornton's height and stats are similar to Brand (although he looks a bit heavier than 220lb). Both have very long arm and are quick off the floor. However, Brand is better than Thornton in several respects. First, Brand has a well developed back-to-the-basket offensive game. Brand has a great turn around jump shot which he can get off almost everyone due to his quickness of the floor. He also has a nice hook shot if he's close enough to the basket. This has made Brand into a reliable go-to player whenever the Clippers need a bucket. Thornton currently doesn't have a reliable go to move. Second, Brand seems to have better body control than Thornton. This body control allows Brand to use a variety of spin moves and shakes to get around his defender without sacrificing the quality of his shot attempt. Thornton seems more deliberate in his movements and body control is something you can't teach. Finally, Brand has a lower center of gravity than Thornton. This low center of gravity allows Brand to move laterally very well and hold his position against taller guys.
On the other hand, what Thornton lacks in back-to-the-basket moves, Thornton makes up with in perimeter play. Thornton is more explosive than Brand in the perimeter and as a result can get by defenders using a first step off the dribble. However, Thornton still needs to improve his body control and passing ability so once he gets by the first defender, so he can take a shot that he is comfortable with or pass the ball to an open man or cutter.
Projected Future in the NBA - Thornton should be able to start for most teams because he has the athleticism to be a difference maker to play aggressive defense and to grab tough rebounds in traffic. Thornton probably will never be a number 1 or number 2 scoring option, however. Thornton's best chance to succeed offensively will be from the perimeter where he must continue to develop consistency on his jumper and a better handle to slash to the hoop. Defensively, Thornton can be very effective because he moves well for a guy his size and has the strength, length, and quickness to defend the 3 and the 4. Although he may not be a perennial All-star, Thornton is a guy who will help you win games because he can make plays without the ball in his hands, but also has enough talent and coordination to become an effective scorer.
DJ White: Listed at 6'8, 242, DJ White is also similar in height and a tad bulkier than Brand. While Thornton has long arms, White has the freakishly long arms that Brand has. White's game is pretty comparable in Brand in that they both possess a nice turn around jumper, impressive quickness off the ground, and are very active on both ends of the floor. However, where Brand outshines White is with Brand's body control. It's not so much that White lacks good body control--its more that Brand (just like old Charles Barkley) has great body control. Again, this is a major factor to why Brand can shoot high percentage shots after making multiple moves in the paint. Brand also has a much better jumper from 15-18 feet than White. Finally, Brand currently has a better handle than White, which allows Brand to take bigger, slower defenders out to the perimeter so he can drive to the hoop for a lay up or quick pull up jumper.
Projected Future in the NBA: In college, White gets by with his nice touch around the basket, turnaround jumpshot, quickness and length. On defense, he has good timing in blocking shots and has strength to hold his position on the block. However, in the NBA he may have trouble scoring unless he develops more range on his jumper and more low post moves inside. White definitely has the potential to be effective and could be this year's Udonis Haslem if he falls to the second round.
Glen Davis: Glen Davis is certainly big and strong, but plays and moves more like a guard than he does a big man. Davis lacks the length and explosiveness that Brand, Thornton and White have, which will be a huge concern for NBA scouts. On the other hand, Glen Davis has a feathery touch and can shoot off the dribble quite well. He also has lateral quickness and is light on his feet, which seem fit for a perimeter game. Unfortunately for Glen Davis, however, most NBA teams aren't looking for a 6 ft 7, 270+ pounder who has the skills of a shooting guard. Compared to Brand, Davis is only similar in the sense that he is similar in height.
Projected Future in the NBA: Of these three players, I am least high on Glen Davis as an NBA prospect. Davis simply isn't athletic or long enough to be a difference maker on an NBA team. He could probably put up a few points, but in the NBA that will be his only dimension.
So today, whenever the media hypes up a short college power forward, they justify the hype by labeling him as the "next Elton Brand." Guys like Ike Diogu, Marcus Fizer, and Sean May were touted as such. Fizer isn't in the league anymore. Diogu and May are still early in the careers, but so far they haven't shown the ability to consistently dominate the low post as they did in college. None of those guys will replicate the success acheived by Elton Brand because they lacked the combintation of skill sets that Brand brings to the table--namely explosive quickness (both off the ground and laterally), great body control, freakishly long arms, decisive moves around the basket, and a great midrange jumper, among other things.
This year there are a few more undersized power forwards who have first round, if not lottery, potential. None of this year's candidates for "next Elton Brand" are getting much hype. Do they deserve more? Let's take a look at their abilities and see (1) how they compare to Elton Brand, and (2) how their game will translate in the NBA.
Al Thornton: Listed at 6'8 and 220lbs, Thornton's height and stats are similar to Brand (although he looks a bit heavier than 220lb). Both have very long arm and are quick off the floor. However, Brand is better than Thornton in several respects. First, Brand has a well developed back-to-the-basket offensive game. Brand has a great turn around jump shot which he can get off almost everyone due to his quickness of the floor. He also has a nice hook shot if he's close enough to the basket. This has made Brand into a reliable go-to player whenever the Clippers need a bucket. Thornton currently doesn't have a reliable go to move. Second, Brand seems to have better body control than Thornton. This body control allows Brand to use a variety of spin moves and shakes to get around his defender without sacrificing the quality of his shot attempt. Thornton seems more deliberate in his movements and body control is something you can't teach. Finally, Brand has a lower center of gravity than Thornton. This low center of gravity allows Brand to move laterally very well and hold his position against taller guys.
On the other hand, what Thornton lacks in back-to-the-basket moves, Thornton makes up with in perimeter play. Thornton is more explosive than Brand in the perimeter and as a result can get by defenders using a first step off the dribble. However, Thornton still needs to improve his body control and passing ability so once he gets by the first defender, so he can take a shot that he is comfortable with or pass the ball to an open man or cutter.
Projected Future in the NBA - Thornton should be able to start for most teams because he has the athleticism to be a difference maker to play aggressive defense and to grab tough rebounds in traffic. Thornton probably will never be a number 1 or number 2 scoring option, however. Thornton's best chance to succeed offensively will be from the perimeter where he must continue to develop consistency on his jumper and a better handle to slash to the hoop. Defensively, Thornton can be very effective because he moves well for a guy his size and has the strength, length, and quickness to defend the 3 and the 4. Although he may not be a perennial All-star, Thornton is a guy who will help you win games because he can make plays without the ball in his hands, but also has enough talent and coordination to become an effective scorer.
DJ White: Listed at 6'8, 242, DJ White is also similar in height and a tad bulkier than Brand. While Thornton has long arms, White has the freakishly long arms that Brand has. White's game is pretty comparable in Brand in that they both possess a nice turn around jumper, impressive quickness off the ground, and are very active on both ends of the floor. However, where Brand outshines White is with Brand's body control. It's not so much that White lacks good body control--its more that Brand (just like old Charles Barkley) has great body control. Again, this is a major factor to why Brand can shoot high percentage shots after making multiple moves in the paint. Brand also has a much better jumper from 15-18 feet than White. Finally, Brand currently has a better handle than White, which allows Brand to take bigger, slower defenders out to the perimeter so he can drive to the hoop for a lay up or quick pull up jumper.
Projected Future in the NBA: In college, White gets by with his nice touch around the basket, turnaround jumpshot, quickness and length. On defense, he has good timing in blocking shots and has strength to hold his position on the block. However, in the NBA he may have trouble scoring unless he develops more range on his jumper and more low post moves inside. White definitely has the potential to be effective and could be this year's Udonis Haslem if he falls to the second round.
Glen Davis: Glen Davis is certainly big and strong, but plays and moves more like a guard than he does a big man. Davis lacks the length and explosiveness that Brand, Thornton and White have, which will be a huge concern for NBA scouts. On the other hand, Glen Davis has a feathery touch and can shoot off the dribble quite well. He also has lateral quickness and is light on his feet, which seem fit for a perimeter game. Unfortunately for Glen Davis, however, most NBA teams aren't looking for a 6 ft 7, 270+ pounder who has the skills of a shooting guard. Compared to Brand, Davis is only similar in the sense that he is similar in height.
Projected Future in the NBA: Of these three players, I am least high on Glen Davis as an NBA prospect. Davis simply isn't athletic or long enough to be a difference maker on an NBA team. He could probably put up a few points, but in the NBA that will be his only dimension.
Sunday, March 11, 2007
North Carolina prospects
Brandon Wright (34) 6'9 PF: mobile and soft touch around the perimeter. Has very good body control for a man his size. Excellent scoring skills, has range out near 3 point range
Only above average quickness, but very smooth. Extremely long arms helps him get to rim level with great ease. Has good hands and can catch bullet passes that are off target. Seems to lack the extra gear that his teammate Hansborough has. Because of his narrow frame, he will have a difficult time guarding stronger power forwards such as Zach Randolph, Carlos Boozer, etc.
NBA Comparison - a slightly smaller version of young Vin Baker, because of his offensive polish, above average athleticism, excellent length, and overall smooth game.
NBA Value - will be a solid NBA starter who will add value as a scorer and above average help defender. Doesn't seem to have the mentality to dominate a game and doesn't consistently put an effort in rebounding.
Tyler Hansborough (50) 6'8 PF: A fearless player who impacts the game by never taking a play off. Constantly crashes the boards for offensive and defensive rebounds. Will not hesitate to recklessly fly into a crowd for a rebound. Looks to attach the rim on offense. Not a natural outside shooter, but can finish very well around the rim. Plays with great tenacity--he will take charges with a broken nose. Displays a real thirst for attacking the boards and will crash for boards outside of his area. Seems to enjoy physical contact. Underrated athlete who looks light on his feet and gets off the ground quickly. On the downside, he looks to be no taller than 6’6 to 6’7 without shoes. He also has alligator arm syndrome.
NBA Comparison - Corliss Williamson's offensive skills and physicality meets Mark Madsen's tenacity and hustle.
NBA Value - can be a spark off the bench. Would be an excellent fit on a team that has too many player who need the ball in their hands. He can be the guy who attacks the glass and makes plays without the ball in his hands. All good NBA teams have someone like that.
Wayne Ellington (2) 6'4, SG - nice jump shooter. Strong shooter off the dribble. Can handle the ball well. Undersized player who wouldn't have above average size or athleticism for an NBA player. Very slight frame. His is more quick than explosive at this point.
NBA Comparison - Bracey Wright, because of his scoring ability and pull up jumper, size, and lack of elite athleticism. In terms of physical traits, he is comparable to Daniel Ewing.
NBA Value - probably won't be much more than a specialty player. At this point, he does not stand out on defense and his offensive game is very one dimensional--jump shooting. He can handle the ball okay, but doesn't have the ability to finish in traffic to make himself a dangerous player in the NBA.
Ty Lawson (5) 5'11 PG - explosive quickness, smooth passer who can affect the game by forcing the tempo. Very quick with the ball from end to end. Loves to penetrate and can create his own shot once he gets into the paints. Has become an outside shooting threat, both as a spot up shooter as well as off the dribble. Has a running back's build. In spite of his excellent ball-handling skills and ability to get into the paint, he doesn't over dribble or pound the ball very often.
NBA Comparison - TJ Ford, because of his speed with the ball.
NBA Value - A point guard who won't take over the game like Steve Nash or Baron Davis, but can distribute the ball very well and create for others off the dribble. Would be effective playing with a team that likes to get up and down and doesn't run its offense through a low post player.
Reshawn Terry (3) 6'7 SF/SG - great athlete, has NBA offensive skills. Excellent rise on his jumper and shooting form, so he will be able to get his shot off easily in the NBA. Has NBA size and athleticism for a wing player. Doesn't try to do too much and will not force the action. Can pass well for a wing his size. Although he is less heralded than Wayne Ellington, Terry is the better NBA prospect because of his size, athleticism, and all around skills.
NBA Comparison - Derek Anderson, because of his patience, under-control yet arguably passive play.
NBA Value - Tough to say because he has the tools to be very productive player. He could be a guy who could score 25 points on certain nights if he's looking for his offense. More likely he will be a 3rd scoring option when he's on the floor because of his mentality, but will do a little of everything.
Only above average quickness, but very smooth. Extremely long arms helps him get to rim level with great ease. Has good hands and can catch bullet passes that are off target. Seems to lack the extra gear that his teammate Hansborough has. Because of his narrow frame, he will have a difficult time guarding stronger power forwards such as Zach Randolph, Carlos Boozer, etc.
NBA Comparison - a slightly smaller version of young Vin Baker, because of his offensive polish, above average athleticism, excellent length, and overall smooth game.
NBA Value - will be a solid NBA starter who will add value as a scorer and above average help defender. Doesn't seem to have the mentality to dominate a game and doesn't consistently put an effort in rebounding.
Tyler Hansborough (50) 6'8 PF: A fearless player who impacts the game by never taking a play off. Constantly crashes the boards for offensive and defensive rebounds. Will not hesitate to recklessly fly into a crowd for a rebound. Looks to attach the rim on offense. Not a natural outside shooter, but can finish very well around the rim. Plays with great tenacity--he will take charges with a broken nose. Displays a real thirst for attacking the boards and will crash for boards outside of his area. Seems to enjoy physical contact. Underrated athlete who looks light on his feet and gets off the ground quickly. On the downside, he looks to be no taller than 6’6 to 6’7 without shoes. He also has alligator arm syndrome.
NBA Comparison - Corliss Williamson's offensive skills and physicality meets Mark Madsen's tenacity and hustle.
NBA Value - can be a spark off the bench. Would be an excellent fit on a team that has too many player who need the ball in their hands. He can be the guy who attacks the glass and makes plays without the ball in his hands. All good NBA teams have someone like that.
Wayne Ellington (2) 6'4, SG - nice jump shooter. Strong shooter off the dribble. Can handle the ball well. Undersized player who wouldn't have above average size or athleticism for an NBA player. Very slight frame. His is more quick than explosive at this point.
NBA Comparison - Bracey Wright, because of his scoring ability and pull up jumper, size, and lack of elite athleticism. In terms of physical traits, he is comparable to Daniel Ewing.
NBA Value - probably won't be much more than a specialty player. At this point, he does not stand out on defense and his offensive game is very one dimensional--jump shooting. He can handle the ball okay, but doesn't have the ability to finish in traffic to make himself a dangerous player in the NBA.
Ty Lawson (5) 5'11 PG - explosive quickness, smooth passer who can affect the game by forcing the tempo. Very quick with the ball from end to end. Loves to penetrate and can create his own shot once he gets into the paints. Has become an outside shooting threat, both as a spot up shooter as well as off the dribble. Has a running back's build. In spite of his excellent ball-handling skills and ability to get into the paint, he doesn't over dribble or pound the ball very often.
NBA Comparison - TJ Ford, because of his speed with the ball.
NBA Value - A point guard who won't take over the game like Steve Nash or Baron Davis, but can distribute the ball very well and create for others off the dribble. Would be effective playing with a team that likes to get up and down and doesn't run its offense through a low post player.
Reshawn Terry (3) 6'7 SF/SG - great athlete, has NBA offensive skills. Excellent rise on his jumper and shooting form, so he will be able to get his shot off easily in the NBA. Has NBA size and athleticism for a wing player. Doesn't try to do too much and will not force the action. Can pass well for a wing his size. Although he is less heralded than Wayne Ellington, Terry is the better NBA prospect because of his size, athleticism, and all around skills.
NBA Comparison - Derek Anderson, because of his patience, under-control yet arguably passive play.
NBA Value - Tough to say because he has the tools to be very productive player. He could be a guy who could score 25 points on certain nights if he's looking for his offense. More likely he will be a 3rd scoring option when he's on the floor because of his mentality, but will do a little of everything.
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