Is Greg Oden the Greatest Center Prospect Ever?

Is Greg Oden the greatest center prospect to ever come out of college? Judging by the player comparisons given by other NBA draft sites, Oden seems like a sure-fire hall of famer. Between Draftexpress.com, NBADraft.net, Espn.com, , Oden has been compared to a young Patrick Ewing, Shaquille O’Neal and even David Robinson. Franky, some of these comparisons make me scratch my head. For example, David Robinson was a 7 footer who had the skills of a small forward. The Shaq comparisons are mind boggling as well because their body types are very different. As far as the Patrick Ewing comparison goes, they’re not bad. I’ve only seen highlights of Ewing during his Georgetown days, but from what I understand, Ewing was a much more physical player than he was in the 1990’s.

I’d like to offer another comparison-- a young Dikembe Mutumbo. Why is no one talking about Oden being the next Mutumbo? For the first ten years of his career, Mutumbo averaged double digits in points and rebounds. He also averaged over 3 blocks per game during those first ten years. Beyond the stats, Mutumbo and Oden’s skills are strikingly similar. Both of them have excellent timing when blocking shots. Both players could disrupt an opponents offense simply by being on the floor and being a threat to block shots. Both players have a nifty jump hook. And both players were above average free throw shooters. (Mutumbo has averaged 68.4% from their cherry stripe for his career). On the downside, neither player has much offensive polish and both of them seem very deliberate in their movements when making offensive moves.

That said, there are some things that Oden does better and some things that Mutumbo does better. On one hand, Oden is quicker up and down the floor and seems to be more fluid in his motions. As a result, he seems to have more athletic potential to develop a more complete offensive game. On the other hand, I wonder if Oden will be as an effective of a rebounder as Mutumbo was in the NBA career. While Oden’s rebounding numbers are nothing to be ashamed of, Oden has had his share of 5 or 6 rebound games this year. In college, Oden should be able to average double digit rebounds in his sleep simply by relying on his height and length advantage. If he wants to translate similar rebounding production in the pros, however, Oden will have to improve in reacting to the ball and not positioning himself so close to the rim when trying to rebound long range jump shots.

Oden is certainly deserving of being the first pick in the 2007 NBA draft should he choose to turn pro this year. His presence in the paint alone allows his teammates to play perimeter defense more aggressively, thereby instantly making any team he plays on that much better defensively. However, he is still somewhat raw on offense and his lack of a natural feel scoring the ball may limit his ability in the NBA to dominate on the offensive end. Hence, a younger Dikembe Mutumbo seems like most accurate projection of Greg Oden’s future value in the NBA. If you can accept that comparison, would you still feel like Oden deserves the hype he has received thus far?