2011 Prospects

Its been a VERY long time since my last post, but I'm feeling pretty good about the calls I've made about certain draft prospects in the last few years. I called that Russell Westbrook might be better than Derrick Rose in 3 years, and that Michael Beasley would be a high scorer on a bad team but not much else. I also didn't buy into the Greg Oden hype that EVERYONE else was buying into. Who knows what Greg Oden could have been if he didn't have all his injuries, but I think its been pretty apparent that during his time on the floor he has resembled Dikembe Mutumbo more than David Robinson. I thought the David Robinson comparisons on nbadraft.net and ESPN were absolutely horrible--David Robinson was almost like a 7 ft old-school small forward offensively, while Greg Oden was purely a back to the basket, one move scorer or clean up guy.

Anyhow, I'm gonna go out on a limb again and make a couple of calls that go against the grain of conventional wisdom:

Will Barton out of Memphis. He's not even in the discussion as a 2nd round draft pick right now, but he's gonna be in the first round or even mid lottery discussion in 4 months. This kid is a shooting guards/small forward that is way skinny, but has length, agility, and playmaking ability that makes you think he's going to get some serious attention of the scouts. Furthermore, I think scouts tend to put too much weight into a perimeter player's strength and physical build. Scouts often are concerned that a skinny perimeter player will get posted up and be a defensive liabilty. That's BS. How often do you see a skinny 2/3 getting abused defending the post? Not often, because most 2/3s don't spend a lot of time practicing their post moves or operating in that area in most offensive schemes. As a perimeter defender, your job is to stay with your man, cover a lot of area quickly, play passing lanes, and don't get beat off the dribble. Being skinny does not hurt you in any of those duties, but being slow or having stumpy arms will. Barton is quick, agile, and long so he projects to be a very good defender from a physical standpoint. He has serious handles and great vision, which are 2 things you can't really teach by the time a player gets to college. His athleticism is not spectacular, but at least as good as Paul Pierce and a 32 year old Kobe Bryant. His outside shot is not very consistent right now, but that is the easiest thing to improve.

Reggie Jackson out of Boston College: I've only seen this physical, lengthy junior point guard play about one half of a basketball game, but it was pretty apparent this point guard's abilities will translate at the next level. This guy is a beast from an athletic standpoint. He is a bit unpolished, but has a decent handle and can get to the rim at will against defenses that play pack-line defense. You want to see that ability to get to the hoop in an NBA point guard prospect. He also plays with a ton of energy--I mean he goes HARD for the entire time you see him play. The downside on him is that he might not be a true point guard and therefore be a shorter perimeter player without a position. He might not be a first rounder , and might not even enter the draft this year, but if he can put up some big numbers during league play he'll be on the radar.